4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 24

New Orleans Saints 45 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.97 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model