4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 23

New Orleans Saints 48 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:22) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.78 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 23, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model