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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 7-C.Catanzaro 30 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.43 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 12, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP