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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
Sunday 2018-11-11 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

WAS
39.4%
TB
60.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB defense: +0.156 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (TB): +0.205 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 24
–
TB 26
Projected margin: TB by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

WAS

Chris Thompson RB Out Rib
Trent Williams T Out Thumb
Quinton Dunbar CB Questionable Shin
Jamison Crowder WR Questionable Ankle
Morgan Moses T Questionable Knee

TB

Vinny Curry DE Out Ankle
Ronald Jones RB Out Hamstring
Evan Smith G Out Hip
M.J. Stewart CB Out Foot

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 16
–
TB 3

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 31 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:14 FG WAS (:14) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – TB 0
  • Q2 02:06 FG TB (2:06) 7-C.Catanzaro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. WAS 3 – TB 3
  • Q2 00:24 FG WAS (:24) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 6 – TB 3
  • Q4 14:16 TD WAS (14:16) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 18-J.Doctson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 12 – TB 3
  • Q4 12:06 FG WAS (12:06) 3-D.Hopkins 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 16 – TB 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:02) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to TB 7, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-A.Humphries to TB 15 for 8 yards (52-R.Anderson).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 16 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 44%

    (4:26) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Touchback.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 9 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 85%

    (:14) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 96%

    (8:35) 7-C.Catanzaro 30 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (6:05) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to TB 22, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 13 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (2:06) 7-C.Catanzaro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 85%

    (:24) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (11:15) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to TB 4, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-87-J.Sprinkle.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 97%

    (12:06) 3-D.Hopkins 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 11 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 29%

    (6:18) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to TB 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 29%

    (:27) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to TB 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-57-N.Sundberg.