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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 74

Washington Commanders 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to TB 22, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.06 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model