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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 7-C.Catanzaro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.31 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model