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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 25

Washington Commanders 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(:14) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.60 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model