Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 87

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(5:13) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to BAL 34, Center-46-C.Harris. 27-C.Jones to BAL 46 for 12 yards (45-M.Jefferson). PENALTY on CIN-40-B.Wilson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 46.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.49 EP
55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 87, worth -5.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model