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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
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BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2018-11-18 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CIN
33.0%
BAL
67.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN defense: +0.156 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • BAL on 7 more days rest than CIN
  • CIN offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 21
–
BAL 26
Projected margin: BAL by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

CIN

Preston Brown LB Out Knee
Tyler Kroft TE Out Foot
Josh Malone WR Out Hamstring
Nick Vigil LB Out Knee
Adolphus Washington DT Out Knee
A.J. Green WR Doubtful Toe
Dre Kirkpatrick CB Questionable Concussion
John Ross WR Questionable Groin
Vontaze Burfict LB Questionable Hip

BAL

James Hurst G Out Back
Tim Williams LB Out Ankle
Joe Flacco QB Doubtful right hip
Tony Jefferson S Questionable Thigh
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Ankle
Tavon Young CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 21
–
BAL 24

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:37 TD BAL (7:37) (Shotgun) 34-A.Collins right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – BAL 6
  • Q2 13:00 TD CIN (13:00) 94-S.Hubbard reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – BAL 7
  • Q2 01:47 FG BAL (1:47) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CIN 7 – BAL 10
  • Q2 00:05 FG BAL (:05) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CIN 7 – BAL 13
  • Q3 11:50 TD CIN (11:50) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 89-M.Lengel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – BAL 13
  • Q3 05:51 TD CIN (5:51) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 15-J.Ross for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 20 – BAL 13
  • Q3 01:07 TD BAL (1:07) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 21 – BAL 19
  • Q4 08:15 FG BAL (8:15) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CIN 21 – BAL 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:02) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to BAL 25, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 10 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:36) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to BAL 28, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:19) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at BAL 34 for 49 yards (4-S.Koch). PENALTY on CIN-42-C.Fejedelem, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 45.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 22%

    (2:10) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to BAL 10, Center-46-C.Harris. 27-C.Jones to BAL 12 for 2 yards (40-B.Wilson).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:08) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to CIN 43, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 17 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 45%

    (6:48) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 33 yards to CIN 09, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:13) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to BAL 34, Center-46-C.Harris. 27-C.Jones to BAL 46 for 12 yards (45-M.Jefferson). PENALTY on CIN-40-B.Wilson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 46.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 96%

    (1:47) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 14 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:33) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 31 yards to BAL 25, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-88-J.Franks. PENALTY on CIN-45-M.Jefferson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 25. #10 Chris Moore partially blocked the punt

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (10:15) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to BAL 45 for no gain (57-V.Rey). Baltimore challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 09:15.)

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:15) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to BAL 39, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (8:15) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 68%

    (4:04) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:58) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to CIN 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 19 for 8 yards (54-T.Bowser; 48-P.Onwuasor). PENALTY on CIN-88-J.Franks, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at CIN 19.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (1:46) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 16-C.Core (29-M.Humphrey).