Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 56

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(:33) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 31 yards to BAL 25, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-88-J.Franks. PENALTY on CIN-45-M.Jefferson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 25. #10 Chris Moore partially blocked the punt

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.18 EP
72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 56, worth -1.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model