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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 54

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(2:58) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to CIN 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 19 for 8 yards (54-T.Bowser; 48-P.Onwuasor). PENALTY on CIN-88-J.Franks, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at CIN 19.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.76 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 54, worth -2.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model