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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 52

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(2:10) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to BAL 10, Center-46-C.Harris. 27-C.Jones to BAL 12 for 2 yards (40-B.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.75 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 52, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -2.02 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model