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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 45

Denver Broncos 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(:59) 3-C.Wadman punts 36 yards to LAC 9, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.23 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model