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Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
Sunday 2018-11-18 · 16:05 StubHub Center, Carson US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

DEN
25.9%
LAC
74.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.176 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.283 vs Case Keenum (DEN) -0.041 EPA/dropback
  • DEN on 7 more days rest than LAC
  • LAC defense: -0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 20
–
LAC 28
Projected margin: LAC by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

DEN

Max Garcia G Out Knee
Brandon Marshall LB Out Knee
Dymonte Thomas S Out Ankle

LAC

Trevor Williams CB Out Knee
Joey Bosa DE Questionable Foot
Antonio Gates TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 23
–
LAC 22

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:05 FG LAC (7:05) 4-M.Badgley 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. DEN 0 – LAC 3
  • Q1 00:45 FG LAC (:45) 4-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. DEN 0 – LAC 6
  • Q2 12:14 TD DEN (12:14) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – LAC 6
  • Q2 02:45 TD LAC (2:45) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LAC-13-K.Allen, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DEN 7 – LAC 12
  • Q3 10:02 TD LAC (10:02) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 85-A.Gates for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – LAC 19
  • Q3 02:28 TD DEN (2:28) 28-R.Freeman up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – LAC 19
  • Q4 12:20 TD DEN (12:20) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 30-P.Lindsay. 30-P.Lindsay left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 20 – LAC 19
  • Q4 06:51 FG LAC (6:51) 4-M.Badgley 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. DEN 20 – LAC 22
  • Q4 00:03 FG DEN (:03) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman. DEN 23 – LAC 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:57) 3-C.Wadman punts 46 yards to LAC 20, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-89-B.Parker.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 18 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 80%

    (7:05) 4-M.Badgley 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (4:51) 3-C.Wadman punts 52 yards to LAC 16, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at LAC 18 for 2 yards (41-I.Yiadom).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 82%

    (:45) 4-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 22%

    (12:58) (Punt formation) 3-C.Wadman pass short left to 32-A.Janovich pushed ob at LAC 41 for 12 yards (34-D.Watt).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 94%

    (6:57) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle to LAC 16 for no gain (57-J.Brown; 51-K.Emanuel).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 40%

    (:59) 3-C.Wadman punts 36 yards to LAC 9, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (8:40) 3-C.Wadman punts 45 yards to LAC 22, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (:58) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to DEN 27, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 24-A.Jones.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.65 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 96%

    (6:51) 4-M.Badgley 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 40%

    (3:53) 3-C.Wadman punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 33%

    (1:58) 5-D.Jones punts 40 yards to DEN 8, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.