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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 45

Denver Broncos 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 22

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 3-C.Wadman punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.06 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.72 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP