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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 18 at the 28

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 4-M.Badgley 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.50 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model