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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 5

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(14:58) 4-G.Zuerlein 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +3.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.40 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 5, worth +0.62 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT +0.45 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP