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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Monday 2018-11-19 · 20:15 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 63.5

Win Probability

KC
51.5%
LA
48.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.247 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.255 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • LA defense: +0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Jared Goff (LA) +0.301 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.396 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

KC 28
–
LA 27
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 55

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

KC

Mitch Morse C Out Concussion
Eric Berry S Doubtful Heel
Sammy Watkins WR Questionable Foot

LA

Cooper Kupp WR Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 51
–
LA 54

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 50 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:06 TD LA (12:06) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 17-R.Woods for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – LA 6
  • Q1 05:43 TD LA (5:43) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 83-J.Reynolds for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-21-E.Murray, Defensive Holding, declined. KC 0 – LA 12
  • Q1 03:33 TD KC (3:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – LA 13
  • Q2 14:58 FG LA (14:58) 4-G.Zuerlein 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. KC 7 – LA 16
  • Q2 08:09 FG KC (8:09) 7-H.Butker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 10 – LA 16
  • Q2 06:37 TD KC (6:37) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 27-K.Hunt for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 16 – LA 16
  • Q2 02:00 TD LA (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 13 for -9 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald) [99-A.Donald], RECOVERED by LA-50-S.Ebukam at KC 11. 50-S.Ebukam for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 17 – LA 22
  • Q2 00:20 TD KC (:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 17-C.Conley for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 23 – LA 23
  • Q3 11:01 TD LA (11:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff scrambles up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 23 – LA 29
  • Q3 07:15 TD KC (7:15) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 29 – LA 30
  • Q3 02:29 FG LA (2:29) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. KC 30 – LA 33
  • Q3 02:24 TD LA (2:24) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 84-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 50-S.Ebukam at KC 25. 50-S.Ebukam for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 30 – LA 39
  • Q4 12:15 TD KC (12:15) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-10-T.Hill, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. KC 36 – LA 40
  • Q4 11:16 TD KC (11:16) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 4 for -10 yards (50-J.Houston). FUMBLES (50-J.Houston), RECOVERED by KC-97-A.Bailey at LA 2. 97-A.Bailey for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 43 – LA 40
  • Q4 09:44 TD LA (9:44) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 81-G.Everett for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 44 – LA 46
  • Q4 02:55 TD KC (2:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 17-C.Conley for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 50 – LA 47
  • Q4 01:56 TD LA (1:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 81-G.Everett for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 51 – LA 53

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:07) 2-D.Colquitt punts 49 yards to LA 20, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-J.Natson to LA 17 for -3 yards (35-C.Ward).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (14:58) 4-G.Zuerlein 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 98%

    (8:09) 7-H.Butker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:18) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to KC 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 10-T.Hill to KC 25 for 19 yards (34-M.Brown). PENALTY on KC-24-J.Lucas, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at KC 6.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 64%

    (12:34) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-T.Higbee to KC 30 for 7 yards (53-A.Hitchens). FUMBLES (53-A.Hitchens), and recovers at KC 25. 89-T.Higbee to KC 25 for no gain (53-A.Hitchens). Penalty on KC-53-A.Hitchens, Defensive Holding, declined.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 94%

    (2:29) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 9 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:13) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to LA 34, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-19-M.Kemp.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (8:18) 2-D.Colquitt punts 52 yards to LA 16, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (6:44) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to KC 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-36-D.Hatfield.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65%

    (4:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to LA 39 for 18 yards (26-M.Barron).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 11 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:04) 6-J.Hekker punts 68 yards to KC -2, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 12 for 14 yards (44-J.McQuaide).