Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 61

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(4:18) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to KC 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 10-T.Hill to KC 25 for 19 yards (34-M.Brown). PENALTY on KC-24-J.Lucas, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at KC 6.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.34 EP
54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model