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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 37

Los Angeles Rams 23 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-T.Higbee to KC 30 for 7 yards (53-A.Hitchens). FUMBLES (53-A.Hitchens), and recovers at KC 25. 89-T.Higbee to KC 25 for no gain (53-A.Hitchens). Penalty on KC-53-A.Hitchens, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.59 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -2.03 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model