Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 75

Kansas City Chiefs 30 – Los Angeles Rams 40

(1:13) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to LA 34, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-19-M.Kemp.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.65 EP
58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model