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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 47 – Kansas City Chiefs 44

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to KC 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-36-D.Hatfield.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.78 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 75, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 32, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP