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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 57

Kansas City Chiefs 44 – Los Angeles Rams 47

What Actually Happened

(4:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to LA 39 for 18 yards (26-M.Barron).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.47 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 57, worth -2.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 17, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model