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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 69

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 2-D.Colquitt punts 49 yards to LA 20, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-J.Natson to LA 17 for -3 yards (35-C.Ward).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.28 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 69, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 27, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model