Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 66

Los Angeles Rams 54 – Kansas City Chiefs 51

(1:04) 6-J.Hekker punts 68 yards to KC -2, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 12 for 14 yards (44-J.McQuaide).

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.15 EP
63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -1.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model