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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 52

Chicago Bears 14 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to MIN 14, Center-48-P.Scales. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 24 for 10 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.06 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 52, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.65 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model