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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
Sunday 2018-11-18 · 20:20 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

MIN
35.4%
CHI
64.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: +0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.143 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • MIN on 7 more days rest than CHI
  • MIN offense: -0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 21
–
CHI 25
Projected margin: CHI by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

MIN

David Morgan TE Out Knee
Andrew Sendejo S Out Groin
Tom Compton G Questionable Knee
Anthony Barr LB Questionable Hamstring
Mike Remmers G Questionable Back

CHI

Dion Sims TE Out Concussion
Javon Wims WR Questionable Knee
Bilal Nichols DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 20
–
CHI 25

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:02 FG CHI (6:02) 1-C.Parkey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. MIN 0 – CHI 3
  • Q2 06:07 TD CHI (6:07) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 17-A.Miller for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – CHI 9
  • Q2 00:55 FG CHI (:55) 1-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. MIN 0 – CHI 14
  • Q3 00:11 FG MIN (:11) 5-D.Bailey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. MIN 3 – CHI 14
  • Q4 11:51 FG MIN (11:51) 5-D.Bailey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. MIN 6 – CHI 14
  • Q4 08:38 TD CHI (8:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 11-L.Treadwell INTERCEPTED by 39-E.Jackson at MIN 27. 39-E.Jackson for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – CHI 20
  • Q4 04:55 TD MIN (4:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 17-A.Robinson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 12 – CHI 22
  • Q4 02:52 FG CHI (2:52) 1-C.Parkey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. MIN 14 – CHI 25
  • Q4 00:52 TD MIN (:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 20 – CHI 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (12:59) 6-M.Wile punts 46 yards to CHI 21, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%

    (6:02) 1-C.Parkey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:20) 6-M.Wile punts 49 yards to CHI 18, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 15 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:59) 6-M.Wile punts 53 yards to CHI 25, Center-47-K.McDermott. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 36 for 11 yards (42-B.Gedeon).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 87%

    (:55) 1-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 23%

    (11:31) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to MIN 14, Center-48-P.Scales. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 24 for 10 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 31%

    (7:42) 6-M.Wile punts 30 yards to CHI 18, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-27-J.Kearse.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 88%

    (2:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen ran ob at CHI 17 for 5 yards.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 11 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%

    (:11) 5-D.Bailey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 92%

    (11:51) 5-D.Bailey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 41%

    (8:47) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 33 yards to MIN 11, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-47-I.Irving.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 76%

    (2:52) 1-C.Parkey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.