4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 48

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 6-M.Wile punts 30 yards to CHI 18, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-27-J.Kearse.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.99 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model