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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 22

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(2:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen ran ob at CHI 17 for 5 yards.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.42 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 32, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model