4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 44

Chicago Bears 14 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 33 yards to MIN 11, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-47-I.Irving.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.94 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP