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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 30

Chicago Bears 22 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 1-C.Parkey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.76 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model