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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4th & 1 at the 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New York Giants 14
What Actually Happened
(5:02) 14-R.Fitzpatrick right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.86 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
- 35% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 1, worth +0.36 EP
KICK
+1.79 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
- 1% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
