Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to TB: Eli Manning (NYG) -0.045 vs Ryan Fitzpatrick (TB) +0.187 EPA/dropback
- NYG defense: +0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- TB defense: +0.125 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 11
TB
NYG
No players on the report.
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:47 TD NYG (11:47) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 26-S.Barkley for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – NYG 6
- Q2 13:42 TD NYG (13:42) 26-S.Barkley right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – NYG 13
- Q2 05:02 TD TB (5:02) 14-R.Fitzpatrick right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – NYG 14
- Q3 14:23 TD NYG (14:23) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left intended for 11-D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 52-A.Ogletree (20-J.Jenkins) at TB 15. 52-A.Ogletree for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – NYG 20
- Q3 07:09 FG NYG (7:09) 2-A.Rosas 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. TB 7 – NYG 24
- Q3 01:43 TD TB (1:43) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston scrambles left end to NYG 3 for 3 yards (99-M.Edwards). FUMBLES (99-M.Edwards), recovered by TB-13-M.Evans at NYG -3. TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – NYG 24
- Q4 13:10 TD NYG (13:10) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 13-O.Beckham for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 14 – NYG 30
- Q4 09:49 TD TB (9:49) 25-P.Barber left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – NYG 31
- Q4 05:16 TD TB (5:16) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 10-A.Humphries for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 27 – NYG 31
- Q4 03:55 TD NYG (3:55) 26-S.Barkley up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 28 – NYG 37
- Q4 02:30 TD TB (2:30) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 34 – NYG 38
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 5Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%
(5:19) 14-R.Fitzpatrick up the middle to NYG 5 for no gain (97-J.Mauro, 21-L.Collins).
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Q2 TB 4th & 15 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(11:08) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to NYG 21, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 15-Q.Henderson to NYG 26 for 5 yards (41-K.Minter).
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Q2 NYG 4th & 15 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(9:25) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to TB 36, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.
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Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%
(5:02) 14-R.Fitzpatrick right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 37Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.82 EPp(convert) 58% p(FG) 63%
(1:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 23 yards to TB 14, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-45-U.Eligwe.
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Q3 NYG 4th & 6 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 72%
(7:09) 2-A.Rosas 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 17 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(7:45) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to TB 30, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-A.Humphries to TB 40 for 10 yards (59-L.Carter). PENALTY on TB-26-A.Adams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 40.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 12 at the 46 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.84 EPp(convert) 30% p(FG) 40%
(:31) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.