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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 37

New York Giants 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 23 yards to TB 14, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-45-U.Eligwe.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.69 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.82 EP