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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 33

New York Giants 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 2-A.Rosas 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.39 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model