Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 17 at the 84

New York Giants 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to TB 30, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-A.Humphries to TB 40 for 10 yards (59-L.Carter). PENALTY on TB-26-A.Adams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.41 EP
71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model