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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 14-R.Fitzpatrick up the middle to NYG 5 for no gain (97-J.Mauro, 21-L.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +3.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.84 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 5, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model