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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 20 at the 76

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 2-A.Lee punts 60 yards to LAC 16, Center-46-A.Brewer. 20-D.King to LAC 39 for 23 yards (29-C.Edmonds).

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.84 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 34, worth -2.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model