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Arizona Cardinals

HC Steve Wilks
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
Sunday 2018-11-25 · 16:05 StubHub Center, Carson US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

ARI
11.3%
LAC
88.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.220 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.327 vs Josh Rosen (ARI) -0.283 EPA/dropback
  • LAC offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 16
–
LAC 31
Projected margin: LAC by 15 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

ARI

Deone Bucannon LB Out Chest
Rudy Ford S Out Heel
D.J. Humphries T Out Knee
Chad Williams WR Out Ankle
Corey Peters DT Questionable Heel
Budda Baker S Questionable Knee
Phil Dawson K Questionable right Hip
Mike Iupati G Questionable Back
Robert Nkemdiche DT Questionable Calf
John Phillips TE Questionable Knee
Olsen Pierre DT Questionable Ankle

LAC

Brandon Mebane DT Questionable Not Injury Related
Melvin Gordon RB Questionable Hamstring
Tyrell Williams WR Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 10
–
LAC 45

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:27 TD ARI (10:27) 3-J.Rosen pass deep middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – LAC 0
  • Q1 04:26 FG ARI (4:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 10 – LAC 0
  • Q2 14:18 TD LAC (14:18) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 81-M.Williams for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – LAC 6
  • Q2 07:05 TD LAC (7:05) (Shotgun) 28-M.Gordon right end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – LAC 13
  • Q2 04:21 TD LAC (4:21) 28-M.Gordon up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – LAC 20
  • Q2 00:13 TD LAC (:13) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 81-M.Williams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – LAC 27
  • Q3 08:09 TD LAC (8:09) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. ARI 10 – LAC 34
  • Q3 00:04 TD LAC (:04) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – LAC 41
  • Q4 03:28 FG LAC (3:28) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. ARI 10 – LAC 45

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 19 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:24) 5-D.Jones punts 53 yards to ARI 30, Center-47-M.Windt. 13-C.Kirk to LAC 44 for 26 yards (42-U.Nwosu).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (4:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 20 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (12:07) 2-A.Lee punts 60 yards to LAC 16, Center-46-A.Brewer. 20-D.King to LAC 39 for 23 yards (29-C.Edmonds).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 81%

    (9:45) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 41%

    (1:53) 2-A.Lee punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:15) 2-A.Lee punts 51 yards to LAC 22, Center-46-A.Brewer. 20-D.King to LAC 27 for 5 yards (29-C.Edmonds).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 94%

    (:54) 69-S.Tevi reported in as eligible. 30-A.Ekeler left end to ARI 2 for 13 yards (33-T.Boston).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 15 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:06) 2-A.Lee punts 52 yards to LAC 30, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 20-D.King.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:04) 5-D.Jones punts 52 yards to ARI 19, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-51-K.Emanuel.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (8:30) 2-A.Lee punts 38 yards to LAC 25, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 20-D.King.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%

    (3:28) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:21) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald to ARI 39 for 5 yards (43-M.Davis; 20-D.King).