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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 28

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:45) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.08 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model