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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 73

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 35

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 2-A.Lee punts 51 yards to LAC 22, Center-46-A.Brewer. 20-D.King to LAC 27 for 5 yards (29-C.Edmonds).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.56 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model