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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 15

Los Angeles Chargers 35 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(:54) 69-S.Tevi reported in as eligible. 30-A.Ekeler left end to ARI 2 for 13 yards (33-T.Boston).

The Three Options

GO +3.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.11 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 15, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model