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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 82

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 42

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 2-A.Lee punts 52 yards to LAC 30, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 20-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.04 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 40, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model