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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 63

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 42

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 2-A.Lee punts 38 yards to LAC 25, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 20-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.24 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model