4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 45

What Actually Happened

(1:21) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald to ARI 39 for 5 yards (43-M.Davis; 20-D.King).

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.02 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.70 EP