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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 4

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 3-W.Lutz 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +3.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.31 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 4, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.17 EP