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Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Thursday 2018-11-22 · 20:20 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 11.5 O/U 61.0

Win Probability

ATL
30.8%
NO
69.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.323 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Drew Brees (NO) +0.433 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.216 EPA/dropback
  • ATL defense: +0.213 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

ATL 22
–
NO 29
Projected margin: NO by 7 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

ATL

Deion Jones LB Out Foot

NO

Terron Armstead T Out Pectoral
Marcus Davenport DE Questionable Toe
Tre'Quan Smith WR Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 17
–
NO 31

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:17 TD NO (11:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 11-T.Lewis for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 27, YAC 1 ATL 0 – NO 6
  • Q1 02:40 FG ATL (2:40) 3-M.Bryant 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 3 – NO 7
  • Q2 09:12 FG NO (9:12) 3-W.Lutz 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. ATL 3 – NO 10
  • Q2 03:25 TD NO (3:25) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 80-A.Carr for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 12, YAC 0 ATL 3 – NO 16
  • Q3 06:05 TD NO (6:05) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 85-D.Arnold for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 25, YAC 0 ATL 3 – NO 23
  • Q3 00:28 TD ATL (:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 18-C.Ridley for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 9 – NO 24
  • Q4 09:31 TD NO (9:31) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 18-K.Kirkwood for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 0 ATL 10 – NO 30
  • Q4 01:54 TD ATL (1:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 26-T.Coleman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 3, YAC 1 ATL 16 – NO 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 13 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (2:40) 3-M.Bryant 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.17 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%

    (9:12) 3-W.Lutz 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:39) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to NO 35, Center-47-J.Harris. 41-A.Kamara to NO 42 for 7 yards (85-E.Saubert).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 30%

    (1:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles right end ran ob at NO 44 for 7 yards (20-K.Crawley).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 28%

    (12:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 18-C.Ridley (47-A.Anzalone).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 36%

    (11:14) 6-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to ATL 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (9:25) 5-M.Bosher punts 52 yards to NO 30, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 41-A.Kamara. ATL S 36 K.Ishmael injured his knee on the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 26%

    (3:33) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-A.Hooper to NO 49 for 4 yards (24-V.Bell). Pass 1, YAC 3

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 18-C.Ridley for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (14:10) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback. PENALTY on ATL-98-T.McKinley, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 20. Penalty on ATL-98-T.McKinley, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 12 at the 51
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 30%

    (6:22) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones to NO 30 for 21 yards (43-M.Williams) [98-S.Rankins]. Pass 21, YAC 0

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 78%

    (4:10) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 18-C.Ridley to NO 3 for 27 yards (23-M.Lattimore) [56-D.Davis]. FUMBLES (23-M.Lattimore), RECOVERED by NO-25-E.Apple at NO 0. 25-E.Apple to NO 2 for 2 yards (14-J.Hardy). Pass 19, YAC 8

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 90 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:45) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to ATL 41, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 17-M.Hall.