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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 79

Atlanta Falcons 3 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to NO 35, Center-47-J.Harris. 41-A.Kamara to NO 42 for 7 yards (85-E.Saubert).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.67 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 79, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 36, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model