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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 48

New Orleans Saints 17 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 6-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to ATL 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.39 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model