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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 53

Atlanta Falcons 3 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(3:33) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-A.Hooper to NO 49 for 4 yards (24-V.Bell). Pass 1, YAC 3

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.56 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 53, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 15, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model